AI Policy Lead Under Trump Counters "Pessimistic Cult" and Unemployment Worries
AI and Job Market: A Contentious Debate
In the realm of artificial intelligence (AI), concerns about job loss are rife. This week, White House AI czar David Sacks disputed these fears, stating that AI isn't likely to spearhead a massivewave of unemployment. At the AWS summit in Washington, he argued, "I don't think we're going to have 20% unemployment."
His remarks came a few days after Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei, a prominent AI leader, warned Axios that AI could wipe out up to half of entry-level white-collar jobs within the next one to five years, possibly pushing unemployment up to 20%.
Experts, however, predict that the adoption of new technology will bring about some economic turbulence. While opinions vary greatly on the extent and timing of this upheaval, Sacks has identified a "doomer cult" that advocates for restrictive AI regulations. He believes this group underestimates the potential for AI-driven growth and overestimates job losses.
Despite the skepticism, the US government considers AI as a national security priority. In fact, Sacks stated that China is only three to six months behind the US in AI development, making it a highly contested race.
Sacks' comments were made against the backdrop of President Donald Trump's attempts to pass his comprehensive domestic policy and tax cut bill. The legislation includes a 10-year moratorium on enforcing state AI regulations. This move has sparked concern among academics, tech workers, and advocacy groups, fearing it could grant AI companies immunity from potential harm they might inflict on society.
A recent survey by the Pew Research Center found that nearly two-thirds of US adults are concerned about job losses due to AI, with more than half being "extremely" or "very" concerned.
While Amodei sees considerable potential in AI, he expresses concerns about what the advancement might cost in terms of jobs. Conversely, Sacks maintains that AI is an inevitability and emphasizes the importance of being prepared rather than resisting it.
Behind the Scenes
Dario Amodei has issued bleak warnings about the employment impact of AI in the near future. He argues that AI poses a significant threat to white-collar jobs, anticipating that it could wipe out up to half of all entry-level white-collar positions within five years, potentially increasing unemployment rates to between 10% and 20% during that period. Amodei contends that technology, finance, law, consulting, and similar white-collar professions are particularly at risk, with entry-level roles being the most vulnerable. He urges both government and industry leaders to cease underestimating the magnitude of the challenge and to start preparing for a looming "job apocalypse."
However, other analyses, such as those from PwC and the Dallas Fed, suggest that the impact of AI on jobs may not be as catastrophic as some fear. The PwC's 2025 Global AI Jobs Barometer indicates that AI is making workers more valuable, with workers possessing AI skills commanding a significant wage premium. The Dallas Fed notes that the correlation between AI exposure and projected job growth or decline over the next decade remains low, suggesting that job losses due to AI may be overstated or that new job creation could counteract losses.
Artificial intelligence (AI) is projected to impact the job market significantly, with Amodei predicting that up to half of entry-level white-collar jobs could be eliminated within five years. However, the potential for AI-driven growth, as argued by Sacks, emphasizes the importance of preparation rather than resistance.
