Anticipated Expansion of Digital Storage and Memory Capacities by 2025 (Third Installment)
Anticipated Expansion of Digital Storage and Memory Capacities by 2025 (Third Installment)
This is the third in a series of annual blog posts we've been publishing for quite some time, exploring forecasts for digital storage and memory. Our initial post delved into the latest advancements and anticipations for magnetic recording technologies, such as HDDs and magnetic tape. The second blog focused on several up-and-coming optical storage startups.
This specific blog centers around solid-state non-volatile memory and storage. We'll discuss recent innovations in flash memory, DRAM, and non-volatile memories like MRAM, RRAM, FRAM, and PCM, as well as emerging computer architectures using these technologies such as CXL and UCIe.
Memory and storage technology saw a recovery in the fourth quarter of 2023 after a substantial correction in 2022 and the majority of 2023. This correction had a significant impact on NAND flash and DRAM. Although predictions suggested that AI-powered PCs and smartphones would drive increased memory demand in 2024, this growth has not been consistent.
In November 2024, TrendForce acknowledged a decline in demand for current DRAM products like DDR4 and LPDDR4X due to diminishing interest and uncertainty regarding the demand for advanced products like DDR5 and LPDDDR5X going into 2025. Consequently, further price reductions might occur by the end of Q4 2024. TrendForce also revised its 2025 forecasts, projecting a significant drop in prices during the first half of 2025, particularly for older DRAM technology.
Notably, high-bandwidth memory, HBM, is expected to experience substantial growth in 2025 as major suppliers of chiplet-based AI devices, such as NVIDIA, increase production to meet anticipated demand. In Q3 2024, the top four hyperscalers invested $58.9B in capex, representing a 63% annual growth rate and accounting for approximately 18% of their aggregate revenues of $293T. However, it remains unclear if this capex investment will translate into commensurate revenue growth, potentially leading to reduced capex spending in the second half of 2025.
Trendforce also mentioned that the NAND flash market is experiencing lower prices, particularly in consumer applications like smartphones, where demand has slowed. On the enterprise and data center side, SSD demand is rising, and companies are launching new high-capacity SSDs, such as those featuring QLC flash, to compete against nearline HDDs. By 2035, SSDs may become the primary storage solution for frequently used data, particularly in AI workflows.
At the 2024 FMS, Silicon Motion presented data from Gartner showing that QLC flash now represents more than 20% of the PC market and over 10% of the enterprise market. SSDs are also being utilized in various AI processing applications. However, the cost of SSDs remains higher than that of HDDs, and we anticipate this price difference to remain substantial as more layers and bits per cell become increasingly challenging to pursue in the future.
Recent NAND flash capacity increases have primarily focused on smaller diameter memory cells, closer memory cells, and increased bits per cell rather than more NAND flash layers. At the 2024 FMS, WDC and Kioxia discussed this being the end of the layers race as more layers only increase capital costs to manufacture those layers. In 2025, NAND flash products with more than 300 layers may become available, but the introduction of these products in volume has historically taken around three years.
The higher capacity SSDs do offer lower operating power and more storage space in a standard rack, which can be an advantage in certain applications. However, QLC flash has lower endurance and is best utilized in infrequently written applications, potentially having limited impact on the demand for nearline storage using HDDs.
The market for emerging non-volatile memories, such as magnetic random access memory (M RAM), resistive RAM (ReRAM), ferroelectric RAM (FRAM), and phase change memory (PCM), is continuing to advance, particularly for embedded memories. In our 2024 report on non-volatile memories, "A Deeper Look at New Memories," we explored developments and projections.
The first widespread use of emerging memories is in embedded memory on a CMOS logic chip, often replacing NOR flash, which has reached its scaling limit at 28nm and is now frequently being replaced with MRAM and ReRAM. Single-transistor MRAM cells are currently competing with multi-transistor static random access memory (SRAM) to reduce the number of memory transistors on a chip and provide a lower-cost, higher-density solution. Enterprise, industrial, and consumer devices currently utilize MRAM as an embedded memory, and this trend is likely to continue.
At the 2024 IEEE MRAM Forum, held as the closing event of the 2024 IEDM conference in San Francisco, organized by the IEEE Magnetics Society and the IEEE Electron Devices Society, Kevin Garello from CEA in France presented a slide detailing some of the stand-alone and embedded non-volatile memory applications.
TSMC is at the forefront of integrating MRAM into embedded devices, as demonstrated by their development plan for MRAM down to 5nm devices. This includes NOR flash-like MRAM or eMRAM, as well as RAM-like MRAM with enhanced endurance and performance. These devices are strategically designed for various automotive and other embedded applications. TSMC manufactures embedded chips for numerous other companies, and their MRAM is utilized in a multitude of these devices. Additionally, TSMC offers ReRAM non-volatile memory and MRAM.
The report suggests that, based on the potential for increased production volume over time, the total annual shipping capacity for emerging memories will escalate from an estimated 340TB in 2023 to 8.46EB in 2034. Correspondingly, emerging memory baseline revenues are anticipated to surge from $421M in 2023 to roughly $71.7B by 2034. This substantial revenue growth will primarily stem from the replacement of SRAM, NOR flash, and some DRAM by emerging memories.
Artificial intelligence drives demand for DRAM and NAND, with significant growth taking place in data centers. However, there are some worries regarding the current pace of data center capital expenditure spending. Meanwhile, products utilizing non-volatile memories in embedded applications are experiencing robust growth.
- Samsung, a leading player in the industry, announced its plans to invest in RRAM and MRAM research to compete in the emerging non-volatile memory market.
- The first solid-state drive (SSD) using ReRAM was introduced by Kioxia, showcasing their commitment to advancing non-volatile memory technologies.
- The latest NAND flash memory from Samsung features a 128-layer 3D structure, leveraging flash memory's high speed and low power consumption for various applications.
- Although DRAM and NOR flash saw a decline in demand and prices, Toshiba Memory (now renamed Kioxia) continued to develop innovative solutions, such as 128-layer BiCS NAND and 1z-nm 1T-bitnetic MRAM.
- To address the demand for high-capacity and energy-efficient memory, Western Digital (WD) announced their plans to launch 3D multi-bit cell technologies, including TLC, QLC, and ZLC, for their future SSDs using NAND flash.