Bitcoin NUPL Indicator Suggesting Potential Peak Approach
The ongoing Bitcoin bull market is expected to continue at least until October 2025, according to analysts at CryptoQuant and other industry experts. This bull run aligns with historical Bitcoin cycles driven by halvings, ETF approvals, and growing institutional adoption, with potential gains ranging from roughly 30% up to possibly 100% or more.
The bull market is moving in "stepwise waves," as analysts have noted. This means that the market may experience several sharp dips before reaching its peak. In fact, the current analysis indicates that a notable peak and subsequent correction of 30-50% are anticipated as the cycle matures, making strategic profit-taking advisable before the top.
One tool used to gauge the sentiment of the market is the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) indicator. At the current price of $120,000, the NUPL indicator is attempting a third peak. When the NUPL value is above 0, more bitcoins are in profit than in loss. However, as the NUPL value climbs, the incentive for investors to take profit increases, leading to increased selling pressure.
Despite this, the current cycle has not come to an end, but the NUPL has already hit two peaks. This condition increases the potential for increased selling pressure as prices climb higher. However, Yonsei insists that the chances of the market seeing sharp, short-term overheated rallies during the rest of the cycle could be lower.
The shift in momentum can be linked to the increasing inflow of institutional capital, such as corporate BTC acquisitions and US spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Although the rising institutional participation has increased market size, liquidity, and improved stability, the percentage of profit during each rally is gradually declining.
The seven-day moving average of long-term holder realized profits has fallen from the $1 billion per day seen in July, according to Glassnode. This suggests that profit-taking among long-term Bitcoin holders has slowed down from the high trend witnessed weeks ago.
Analyst forecasts based on patterns such as Elliott Wave suggest Bitcoin could rally towards $135,000–$140,000 by late 2025 before a bear market begins, though some, like Fundstrat and Standard Chartered, predict tops between $180,000 and $250,000.
The bull run remains intact as long as Bitcoin holds critical support levels (e.g., $100,000), with expectations of 2–3 sharp dips before a potential altcoin season in Q4 2025, signaling continued strength.
However, investors should be cautious of an approaching peak and ensuing correction. The NUPL indicator and institutional signals suggest the momentum is still positive but nearing a mature phase of the cycle, where volatility and profit-taking become key considerations. Strategic profit-taking and hedging strategies may be advisable as the market reaches its peak.
1) As the bull market progresses, strategic investing in the ever-evolving world of technology, such as crypto and bitcoin finance, may yield potential gains, particularly with the ongoing bull run expected to last until October 2025, as suggested by analysts.
2) Despite the ongoing bull run and the growing inflow of institutional capital, investors should remain vigilant and employ strategic profit-taking to mitigate the anticipated volatility and potential correction, as suggested by the NUPL indicator and other market signals, which indicate a maturing market phase.
