Bullish Bitcoin Momentum Supports onset of New Cryptocurrency Uptrend
Drop in Bitcoin's Mean Dollar Age Points to Continuing Bull Run
The declining trend of Mean Dollar Age (MDA) in Bitcoin holdings is a promising indicator for the cryptocurrency market, as stated by Santiment's X metric. MDA represents the average age (in days) of the bitcoins being transacted, with weighting based on their dollar value at the time of receipt.
Historically, a sharp decrease in MDA has signified the onset of major Bitcoin bull runs. During the past three major bull markets over the last five years, the trend has shown a noticeable drop. Since mid-April 2025, this metric has dropped from 441 days to 429 days, indicating that long-held "whale" wallets have begun to actively trade their assets. This shift suggests that the market is gearing up for an unprecedented bull phase.
Adhering to this pattern, the volume of realized gains was limited to just $1 billion while Bitcoin reached its all-time high. This figure is significantly lower compared to the $2.1 billion in realized gains when Bitcoin first surpassed $100,000 in December 2021.
Analysts found that short-term investors dominate the market, with the proportion of BTC held for less than a year rising from 44.6% to 76.9%. Concurrently, the proportion held for more than six months decreased from 24.7% to 13.4%. This trends hints that long-term holders are not partaking in the current buying frenzy, and the level of speculative activity in the market is decreasing.
Furthermore, the Bitcoin price's correlation with global M2 money supply has strengthened. This connection implies that Bitcoin is following global liquidity waves more closely, considering it as the world's fifth-largest asset by market cap. The 10-week M2 money supply projection forecasts that Bitcoin could continue to rise in the near term, as the global liquidity surge continues.
In summary, declining MDA signals a robust and potentially continuing Bitcoin bull run. This trend is driven by renewed interest from previously dormant long-term holders, fueling demand and contributing to a bullish market climate. Past occurrences of this pattern have coincided with significant Bitcoin price rallies, strengthening its bullish implications.
Investors are showing renewed interest in cryptocurrency finance, with the declining Mean Dollar Age (MDA) of Bitcoin holdings potentially indicating a continued bull run in technology-driven markets. In such a context, the shift towards shorter-term investments in Bitcoin might be a sign of a staging ground for an unprecedented bull phase.
