Corn records minimal advances being reversed halfway through the day, showing midday losses.
The current market trend for corn futures and cash corn prices is bearish, with prices declining due to record-high U.S. and global corn supplies that exceed demand.
Corn futures prices have recently fallen toward $3.70 per bushel, the lowest since late 2020, down about 7% over the past month. Cash corn prices align with this trend, currently quoted around $3.54 per bushel.
The USDA Crop Production reports have contributed to this price pressure by raising estimates for planted acres and yield. For the 2025/26 marketing year, the USDA projects a record U.S. corn harvest of approximately 16.7 billion bushels, with a national yield of 188.8 bushels per acre, surpassing expectations by about 800 million bushels. This has pushed U.S. ending stocks to the highest levels since 2018-19, with a projected 24% increase in corn ending stocks for 2025-26.
Recent sales include a private export sale of 315,488 metric tons of corn to Mexico for old and new crop, and sales to South Korea and Mexico totaling nearly 10 million bushels for the 2025-26 marketing year. Despite these increases in export volumes, they are insufficient to offset the rapid growth in production globally, including Brazil’s early safrinha harvest, which floods the market and further pressures prices.
Price fluctuations have been noted in futures contracts. September 2025 futures are around $3.74–$3.995, while December 2025 futures are near $3.97–$4.19, showing moderate volatility influenced by weather conditions and export demand. Seasonal weather impacts, especially in August, remain important for final yield outcomes and therefore near-term market dynamics.
In summary, corn futures and cash prices are currently trending downward due to record U.S. production and large global supplies outweighing demand, supported by USDA reports projecting high yields and increased acreage. Exports are moderately strong but not sufficient to absorb the surplus.
- The CmdtyView national average Cash Corn price is down 1/4 cent at $3.67 3/4.
- USDA's Export Sales report from Thursday showed old crop corn commitments at 70.621 MMT, which is 101% of the WASDE projection.
- Investors in the agriculture sector might want to consider diversifying their portfolio given the bearish trend in finance for corn futures and cash corn prices, attributable to record-high U.S. and global corn supplies exceeding demand.
- The recent decrease in technology adoption in precision agriculture, such as drones and automation in planting and harvesting, could potentially lead to an improvement in yield and help balance the surplus in corn supply for the 2025/26 marketing year.
