faster-than-expected demise of the incinerator
With the approach of 2027, significant changes are on the horizon for the transport sector. The European Emissions Trading System 2 (EU-ETS 2) and the Euro 7 emissions standard are set to make the purchase and maintenance of cars with internal combustion engines more expensive.
The increasing electricity prices are also causing ripples in the market for charging station operators. Meanwhile, the price for CO2 certificates, which will be determined by the EU-ETS 2 from 2027, is expected to rise from the current 55 euros per tonne to up to 65 euros. This will lead to substantial increases in prices, particularly for fossil fuels like gasoline and diesel, causing fuel prices at the pump to rise.
The president of the "Central Association of the German Automotive Industry" predicts a CO2 price of 300 euros per tonne by 2030, which could increase the price at the pump by 70 to 80 cents per liter. This is a concern for many, as the ADAC has warned of a potential price increase of up to 19 cents per liter for fuel.
The growing charging infrastructure in Germany, with over 170,000 public charging points, is a positive step. However, the charging situation for electric cars is problematic, with some providers charging up to 90 cents/kWh. In comparison, the charging station near the editorial office is currently charging 74 cents per kWh.
The cost of energy content in electric car batteries is approaching 40 euros/kWh. While this is a significant expense, it is worth noting that liquid fuel remains unchallenged for quickly replenishing larger amounts of driving energy in certain scenarios.
The Euro 7 emissions standard, which applies to all newly homologated vehicles from November 29, 2026, and to all first-time registered vehicles in the EU from November 29, 2027, is likely to add additional costs of 90 to 150 euros per car. This estimate, provided by the European Commission, is considered optimistic.
Manufacturers must also disclose certain things and prove the permanent effectiveness of exhaust gas aftertreatment, adding to the cost of new cars with combustion engines. Car manufacturers are charging premiums for electric drives that seem less justifiable in light of these rising costs.
For individuals with demand profiles requiring 1000 km without a stop five times a week, the transition to electric vehicles may be particularly expensive due to the lack of economies of scale. These demand profiles are exceptions even in Germany, making it a challenge for the mass adoption of electric vehicles.
In conclusion, the transport sector is facing a period of significant change and increased costs. Whether it's the rising prices at the pump due to the inclusion of the transport sector in the emissions trading system or the additional costs associated with the Euro 7 emissions standard, consumers and manufacturers alike will need to adapt to these changes. The growing charging infrastructure and the advancements in electric vehicle technology offer some hope for a more sustainable future, but the road ahead is not without its challenges.
