Federal Authorities Intensify Investigations into Luigi Mangione's Wagers on Online Gambling Platforms
Federal Authorities Intensify Investigations into Luigi Mangione's Wagers on Online Gambling Platforms
In the United States, it's illegal to bet on Luigi Mangione's proceedings. Kalshi, one of the few lawful prediction markets, withdrew all bets concerning the UnitedHealthcare assassin during December, citing issues from federal overseers.
Gambling is experiencing a "moment" in America, extending from sports betting to Counter-Strike skins. Individuals who wish to bet on something beyond football game outcomes are turning to prediction markets, online platforms where they can wager on event outcomes with binary outcomes. Sites like Polymarket, PredicIt, and Kalshi surged in popularity over the last year.
Popular bets on the site are influenced by current events. In the last few election months, gamblers placed massive bets on Trump, Kamala, and liberal Western democracy's future. Following Luigi Mangione's alleged shooting of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson in Manhattan streets, his situation became the prediction market's main point of interest.
However, these markets are subject to US regulators' scrutiny. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has jurisdiction over prediction markets such as Kalshi and PredictIt. On December 13, all bets relating to Magione vanished from the sites, cited by Bloomberg. The outlet reported that Kalshi removed Mangione-related wagers after receiving "a notice from…regulators." The CFTC prohibits futures trading linked to criminal activities like assassination, terrorism, and war if it deems "so-called events contracts" are harmful to public interest.
On Polymarket, assassin-related bets continue. The odds for "Will Luigi Mangione dismiss his lawyer before 2025?" are only 1 percent on Polymarket. "Will it be confirmed that Luigi Mangione used psychedelics?" Users give it a 43 percent chance. Initially at a 75 percent, "Luigi Mangione motivated by denied claims?" dropped to around 25 percent.
None of the Mangione-related bets have high volumes. Over $400,000, "Is Luigi Mangione's YouTube channel genuine?" had the most volume. However, the viral YouTube channel was debunked as fake for quite some time. The question about his motivations is at $183k, but each other market hasn't managed to exceed $100k. Prediction markets take a percentage of the bets, and it's likely that Kalshi and PredictIt aren't losing significant cash by losing assassin-related bets.
On Polymarket, big political questions and sports bets are moving more substantial sums. The fate of South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol is worth $1 million, the German parliamentary election is worth $4 million, and a possible Biden pardon for Sam Bankman-Fried is worth almost $3 million. On Kalshi, users have wagered almost $7 million on predicting the top USA pop tracks on Spotify. Mangione isn't a popular market.
The CFTC's removal of Mangione-related bets from Kalshi is the latest in its continuing battle against prediction sites. It has tried to regulate the types of wagers that individuals could place on websites like Kalshi and PredictIt multiple times. Earlier this year, it attempted to halt the sites from allowing people to bet on elections, sports, and ceremonial events like the Oscars. However, a U.S. court of appeals overturned the ruling in October, just in time for the election.
On Polymarket, bets flow freely, but the leadership isn't faring well with regulators. In November, the FBI raided the NYC apartment of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan.
In the future, we might see stricter regulations on prediction markets due to the CFTC's continuous efforts to control their content. With advancements in tech and technology, prediction markets might adapt their offerings to stay within the legal boundaries.
Despite the removal of Mangione-related bets, Polymarket continues to offer wagers on other controversial topics, demonstrating the resilience of such online platforms in the face of regulatory challenges.