Imminent Crypto Market Encounters Potential $15 Billion Loss from Bitcoin and Ethereum Options Expiry, Anticipated Market Volatility?
In the world of cryptocurrencies, the upcoming options expiry on Deribit on July 25, 2025, is generating significant interest. With a staggering $15.4 billion at stake, this event promises to be a major catalyst for increased volatility and price movements in both Bitcoin and Ethereum.
The expiry, which involves $12.66 billion in Bitcoin options and $2.75 billion in Ethereum options, is particularly noteworthy due to the potential impact on market prices. The max pain price for Bitcoin is set at around $112,000, while Ethereum's max pain price is near $2,800 to $2,900. These levels, where option holders collectively experience the least loss, could see significant price movements as contracts expire.
This event follows a record $17 billion options expiry in June 2025, indicating sustained institutional participation and liquidity in crypto derivatives markets. The July expiry, while slightly smaller, still underscores the importance of options in market price discovery and hedging.
The high volume of expiring contracts can lead to short-term price volatility as traders expire contracts, adjust positions, or hedge exposure. This is especially true since BTC and ETH prices are trading near critical max pain points. Market observers view these expiries as a kind of "stress test" for the crypto market, reflecting evolving market dynamics without a typical summer drop in volume or interest.
Interestingly, a group on the derivatives platform Greeks.live shows a predominantly bearish sentiment among options traders. Most traders are focusing on potential downward moves, with a Put/Call Ratio (PCR) for Bitcoin options of 0.93, indicating a slightly bullish sentiment. On Ethereum options, the PCR stands at 0.88, suggesting a bullish tilt.
As we approach the final Friday of July, today marks the final day for the $14.59 billion in total monthly options for Ethereum. The total 24h trading volume of Bitcoin stands at $94 billion, while the open interest for Bitcoin options is 103,584 contracts.
It's worth noting that this article does not cover the recent news of Mike Novogratz's Galaxy Digital selling around 30,000 BTC, or the 24h volatility of Bitcoin, the market cap of Ethereum, the number of Bitcoin options set to expire today, the open interest for Ethereum options, or the information about the total 24h trading volume of Ethereum.
Despite the potential for significant losses, traders on Greeks.live are holding put positions, perhaps signalling a belief in the market's ability to absorb large derivatives settlements during a period of price stress and strategic positioning. As we approach the expiry date, market watchers will be keeping a close eye on the crypto market to see how it reacts to this significant event.
- The upcoming Deribit options expiry on July 25, 2025, with a combined value of $15.4 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options, is drawing attention from investors in the technology-driven financial sector, as it could lead to price fluctuations in the finance market.
- The high-stakes event on Deribit, involving max pain prices of around $112,000 for Bitcoin and $2,800 to $2,900 for Ethereum, is seen by market observers as a test for the crypto market, especially given the predominantly bearish sentiment among options traders on Greeks.live.
