Potential Shape of Air Force under a New trump Presidency
Here's the Lowdown on the Air Force Under Trump's Second Term
The second term of President Donald Trump brings uncertainty about the Air Force's direction, but one thing's clear - it's all about readiness and current production like the F-35 and B-21. Those in the know say long-term, futuristic plans are out the window.
On the campaign trail, Trump's team didn't offer many deets about their Air Force plans or the Space Force. However, strategists think the "Operational Imperatives" blueprint will be scrapped. Defense insiders leak a lean toward Rep. Mike Waltz (R-Fla.) as Defense Secretary. Waltz, a former Green Beret, is critical of anything long-term over readiness.
Some of Frank Kendall's work may stick around, though. Analysts like John Venable, senior resident fellow at AFA's Mitchell Institute, expect programs like Collaborative Combat Aircraft and Next-Generation Air Dominance to continue in some form.
As for China, Trump's stance remains hardline, but he's stopped short of promising help for Taiwan if it's invaded. The policy of "strategic ambiguity" from the 1970s still applies. Trump's transactional approach to defense partnerships could mean a less robust Air Force RDT&E (Research, Development, Test, and Evaluation) program if Taiwan isn't the focus.
The National Defense Strategy calls for countering Chinese tech and deterring Russia. These themes continue under the Biden administration, with China labeled the "pacing threat" and Russia considered an "acute" adversary but less of a long-term concern.
Many insightful analysts predict that a strong focus on immediate readiness, current production, and pushback against any disengagement from NATO or abandonment of Taiwan will mark the Air Force's path. This shift could put a squeeze on the Air Force's modernization efforts and leave munitions as the bill-payer.
Wait, There's More:-td;> - Readiness and Production Priorities: With Trump's team signaling urgency in bolstering immediate defense capabilities, it seems the Air Force will focus on padding readiness and production of ongoing projects. - Long-term Innovation Backseat: Any hesitance or perceived riskiness in long-term technology development or next-generation platforms could result in underfunding or reduced support. - China Action Plan: The administration is expected to beef up air power in the Indo-Pacific, engage in more military exercises, and maybe even undertake more freedom of navigation operations near contested territories to serve as a check on China. - Taiwan Support: Support for Taiwan could potentially escalate, with increased arms sales, enhanced defense cooperation, and an increased Air Force presence in the region as a response to Chinese assertiveness and a strategy to counterbalance China's influence.
[1] National Defense University: Strategic Foresight, https://www.ndu.edu/education/programs/center-for-the-study-of-strategic-foresight
[2] Congressional Research Service: U.S. Policy and Military Action in the South China Sea, https://fas.org/sgp/crs/row/IF11611.pdf
[3] Center for Strategic and International Studies: Defense and National Security Priorities for the Biden Administration, https://www.csis.org/analysis/defense-and-national-security-priorities-biden-administration
[4] Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments: National Defense Strategy Commission 2018 Report, https://csbaonline.org/reports/2018/01/national-defense-strategy-commission-2018-report
- The second term of President Trump emphasizes readiness and ongoing production of aircraft such as the F-35 and B-21, pushing long-term, futuristic plans to the backseat in the Air Force's warfare strategy.
- With Defense Secretary Mike Waltz's lean towards immediate readiness, some advanced programs like Collaborative Combat Aircraft and Next-Generation Air Dominance may continue in a modified form.
- The Air Force's approach to countering China's technological advancements and deterring Russia remains a priority, even under the Biden administration, with China being labeled the "pacing threat" and Russia considered an "acute" adversary.
- In terms of sports, the increased focus on immediate readiness and traditional alliances, like NATO, could potentially leave less room for investments in the Air Force's Research, Development, Test, and Evaluation (RDT&E) program, much like a less robust funding for sports infrastructure.
- In an aerospace and space context, Trump's administration may undertake more freedom of navigation operations near contested territories and rally support for Taiwan, using military aircraft and possibly even space force assets as a check on China's dominance.
- The Air Force's modernization efforts could face challenges if the emphasis shifts towards immediate readiness, potentially leading to increased spending on munitions to meet the requirements of continuous defense.
