Thai Stock Market Forecasted to Decrease
The much-anticipated meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin on August 15, 2025, did not result in a concrete agreement but marked a significant reopening of dialogue amid ongoing geopolitical tensions related to the Russo-Ukrainian War.
The impact on Asian stock markets, including the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET), is not immediately clear, as there is no direct publicly available data linking the summit to immediate market movements or the effects of hotter-than-expected producer price inflation (PPI) data. However, some informed inferences can be made based on typical market behavior under similar contexts.
Geopolitical events like high-level U.S.-Russia summits usually create short-term volatility in global markets. Positive signals from such talks tend to reduce risk premiums and help emerging markets rally, while unresolved tensions can contribute to market caution. The SET, as part of Asian emerging markets, is often sensitive to both geopolitical developments and inflation data. Hotter-than-expected PPI generally increases concerns about rising costs and potential tightening of monetary policy, which can depress local stock indices.
Given the summit ended without an agreement and involved complex geopolitical tensions, its direct calming effect on Asian markets may be limited. Combined with hotter PPI data, investor sentiment in Thailand and similar markets may tilt toward caution, reflecting worries about inflationary pressures and geopolitical uncertainties simultaneously. On balance, the market impact is likely a combination of subdued enthusiasm from the summit outcome and increased inflation concerns from the PPI data, leading to mixed or slightly negative pressure on the SET in the short term.
On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 11.01 points or 0.02 percent to finish at 44,911.26, while the NASDAQ dipped 2.47 points or 0.01 percent to close at 21,710.67, and the S&P 500 rose 1.96 points or 0.03 percent to end at a record 6,468.54 on Thursday. Crude oil jumped on Thursday ahead of the crucial meeting between the U.S. and Russian presidents.
The global forecast for the Asian markets suggests little movement ahead of the meeting between the U.S. and Russian presidents. The Labor Department report shows producer prices in the U.S. increased by more than expected in the month of July. Advanced Info, Thailand Airport, Asset World, Banpu, Bangkok Bank, Bangkok Dusit Medical, Bangkok Expressway, B. Grimm, BTS Group, CP All Public, Charoen Pokphand Foods, Energy Absolute, Gulf, Krung Thai Bank, Krung Thai Card, PTT Oil & Retail, PTT, PTT Exploration and Production, PTT Global Chemical, SCG Packaging, Siam Commercial Bank, Siam Concrete, Thai Oil, True Corporation, TTB Bank, and Kasikornbank were among the active stocks in the SET on Thursday.
The Thai stock market finished lower in two out of three trading days following a four-day winning streak. For the day, the SET index lost 10.76 points or 0.84 percent to finish at 1,266.67. The SET is currently sitting just above the 1,265-point plateau. Volume on Thursday was 10.108 billion shares worth 56.938 billion baht. There were 402 decliners and 127 gainers, with 123 stocks finishing unchanged in the SET on Thursday. West Texas Intermediate crude for September delivery was up $1.32 or 2.11 percent at $63.97 per barrel on Thursday.
CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicates a 92.6 percent chance the Federal Reserve will lower rates by a quarter point next month. The meeting between the U.S. and Russian presidents is scheduled to take place later today in Alaska to discuss ways to end the Russia-Ukraine war. No specific information about the global forecast for the Asian markets or the performance of individual stocks is provided in this paragraph.
- Given the unresolved tensions following the U.S.-Russia summit and the potential inflationary pressures from the hotter-than-expected PPI data, the Asian stock markets, like the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET), may experience a wave of caution, particularly in emerging markets.
- Amidst the ongoing geopolitical tensions related to the Russo-Ukrainian War and the uncertain impact of the U.S.-Russia summit, technology-driven industries in the Asian markets, such as Advanced Info in Thailand, may confront a challenging environment due to increased market volatility and potential financial market restraint.
