Transition Away from Oil Changes: Visualizing the Impact of 40-80% Electric Vehicle Adoption
As electric vehicle (EV) adoption surpasses 40% in countries like Germany and the Netherlands, gasoline station closures and the collapse of internal combustion engine (ICE) infrastructure are already underway, with a significant acceleration expected between 2023 and 2025.
Independent fuel stations in Germany, the Netherlands, and Scandinavia have started closing or converting to EV charging hubs during this period, marking a clear decline in demand for gasoline and diesel. This trend is set to continue as EV market penetration grows, with the Netherlands and Germany projected to have around 180,000 and 160,000 public charging points respectively by 2025, supported by EU regulations and investments encouraging fast and ultra-fast charger deployments.
The closure of ICE infrastructure is correlated with rising EV market shares: as the EV penetration approaches and exceeds 40%, widespread transformation of the fuel retail sector and automotive service industry is evident. By 2025, businesses relying heavily on ICE vehicles need to diversify quickly to avoid catastrophic revenue losses.
In urban and suburban settings, the convenience of obtaining gasoline is becoming increasingly elusive. This, combined with the growing number of EV charging stations, is prompting further adoption of electric vehicles.
In Norway, where EVs already represent over 90% of new car sales, gasoline stations will soon become scarce. In China, where EV adoption surpassed 50% of new car sales recently, gasoline station closures will accelerate sharply by the late 2020s.
The traditional repair and maintenance sector serving ICE vehicles will also face rapid shrinkage as EVs cross the 40% threshold. Businesses specializing in mufflers, brakes, oil changes, and engine repairs will be significantly impacted. Routine repairs and maintenance for ICE vehicles will become prohibitively costly due to the scarcity and high cost of spare parts.
The author introduces an integrated framework combining diffusion of innovations, logistic growth (the s-curve), and complex adaptive systems theories to explain the transition of electric vehicles (EVs) from niche products to mainstream acceptance. Policymakers must implement proactive infrastructure transition plans, retraining initiatives, and economic support measures to manage imminent disruptions effectively.
Insurance premiums for ICE vehicles will rise sharply due to increased repair costs, declining resale values, and regulatory restrictions. The overall market for ICE vehicle repair and maintenance will shrink dramatically within a decade.
Consumers considering vehicle purchases must carefully weigh the growing costs and declining convenience of internal combustion cars. Daily life for ICE vehicle owners will become much more difficult and expensive due to the closing of gasoline stations, costly maintenance tasks, and regulatory restrictions.
It is crucial for businesses and consumers alike to prepare for this shift towards electric vehicles. The future belongs to cleaner, more sustainable transportation solutions, and the transition is well underway.
- By 2025, independent fuel stations in Germany, the Netherlands, and Scandinavia are projected to continue closing or converting to EV charging hubs.
- The rise in EV adoption is causing a significant decline in demand for gasoline and diesel, which is leading to the closure of gasoline stations.
- EU regulations and investments are encouraging the deployment of fast and ultra-fast chargers, with the Netherlands and Germany expected to have around 180,000 and 160,000 public charging points respectively by 2025.
- The author's integrated framework combines diffusion of innovations, logistic growth (the s-curve), and complex adaptive systems theories to explain the transition of electric vehicles from niche products to mainstream acceptance.
- Routine repairs and maintenance for ICE vehicles will become prohibitively costly due to the scarcity and high cost of spare parts, impacting businesses specializing in mufflers, brakes, oil changes, and engine repairs.
- As EVs cross the 40% threshold, businesses relying heavily on ICE vehicles need to diversify quickly to avoid catastrophic revenue losses.
- Insurance premiums for ICE vehicles will rise sharply due to increased repair costs, declining resale values, and regulatory restrictions.
- Consumers considering vehicle purchases should carefully weigh the growing costs and declining convenience of internal combustion cars, as the future belongs to cleaner, more sustainable transportation solutions like electric vehicles.
